Robert Draws – ISIS has begun to resurface in the chaos following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. While the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham now leads the fractured nation, sectarian violence and frequent Israeli strikes create the perfect storm for the Islamic State to reemerge. Despite losing its territorial grip years ago, ISIS has not disappeared. Instead, it has regrouped quietly, launching calculated attacks aimed at destabilizing the new Syrian leadership and spreading fear among vulnerable communities. Although the group now consists of only 2500 fighters, down from 100000 at its peak, their operational capabilities remain deadly. Their recent suicide bombing in Damascus that killed 25 people shows just how lethal they can be. As U.S. forces plan to exit Syria, concerns mount about what happens next. Without international counterterrorism support, ISIS might regain strength and wreak havoc across the region and possibly beyond.
Recent months have witnessed a sharp escalation in ISIS attacks across Syrian territories once considered secure. The group has exploited post-Assad instability and sectarian fractures to intensify its campaign of terror. ISIS has struck Christian churches, military checkpoints, and Kurdish communities with tactics ranging from ambushes to suicide bombings. In 2024 alone, the group claimed responsibility for nearly 300 attacks. These efforts aim to expose the weakness of the new government led by former jihadist Ahmed al-Shara. ISIS propaganda has labeled the administration as puppets of foreign influence while encouraging defectors within the military. This rhetoric fuels division and violence in regions like Latakia and southern Damascus. As minority groups face renewed threats, public confidence in the government’s ability to provide security continues to erode. The sectarian tensions between Sunni, Druze, and Alawite communities have further complicated efforts to stabilize Syria. Without effective counterterrorism, the threat posed by ISIS will only grow.
As American troops prepare to leave Syria, local forces face mounting pressure to contain ISIS resurgence. The U.S. presence, which once anchored the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, has already shrunk from 2000 to 1400 troops. Pentagon leaders recommend maintaining at least 500 personnel, but political will in Washington leans toward a complete pullout by 2026. The Syrian Democratic Forces, largely Kurdish, struggle to fill the gap as they integrate with the national army. While they have cooperated in several successful anti-ISIS operations, the absence of U.S. intelligence and surveillance may cripple future efforts. ISIS understands this transitional vulnerability and is likely to strike harder as foreign forces exit. Meanwhile, U.S. bases have been handed over to local actors, leaving only one operational facility in the region. A reduced U.S. footprint will limit training and capacity-building for Syrian forces. If this trend continues unchecked, ISIS will exploit every opportunity to reclaim influence and destabilize the Levant.
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ISIS does not only rely on violence but also on psychological and ideological warfare. The group has ramped up its propaganda campaigns targeting the Syrian leadership. They have accused President Shara of being an Israeli agent and called for rebellion within the military ranks. The weekly ISIS newsletter circulates across radicalized online forums, undermining the Syrian government and encouraging violence. These narratives exploit deep-seated mistrust among Syria’s ethnic and religious groups. In May, a wave of ISIS attacks followed tensions between Sunnis and Druze near Damascus. The same month, bombings targeted the Free Syrian Army, once a U.S.-backed militia, demonstrating ISIS’s intent to destabilize all opposition. The timing of these attacks often aligns with major political developments, such as high-level meetings between Syria and Western leaders. Through such tactics, ISIS aims to fracture any attempts at unity while reigniting chaos. These efforts complicate peacebuilding and embolden other radical factions eyeing Syria’s fragile landscape.
Defeating ISIS requires more than military force. The international community must implement strategic policies that support Syria’s long-term stability. First, U.S. forces should maintain a support role by continuing intelligence sharing, reconnaissance, and military training for Syrian forces and the SDF. Local forces need resources and expertise to counter insurgent operations effectively. Second, the Global Coalition should not only remain intact but also expand to include Syria itself. This move would enable better joint operations and information exchange. Conditions must be outlined clearly for Syria’s participation to ensure alignment with counterterrorism objectives. Additionally, reconstruction programs must address the root causes of radicalization, such as poverty, political exclusion, and lack of basic services. Third-party actors, including Israel and Iran-backed militias, must be prevented from actions that create chaos and feed extremist narratives. Only through unified, strategic intervention can Syria avoid becoming a failed state and prevent ISIS from launching a second caliphate from its soil.
This article is sourced from foreignaffairs and for more details you can read at robertdraws
Writer: Sarah Azhari
Editor: Anisa
